Colorado Avalanche at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2024-12-27 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

UTA: 43.2%

COL: 56.8%

Expected Goals

UTA: 2.96

COL: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	37	33	4	89.2%	4.61	6	0.61
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	35	34	1	97.1%	3.11	3	2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • UTA at home vs COL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-25	UTA 2 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2025-12-23	COL 1 - 0 UTA	COL	COL
2025-10-21	UTA 4 - 3 COL	UTA	COL
2025-10-09	COL 2 - 1 UTA	COL	COL
2024-12-27	UTA 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	12	2	0.83
1	COL	20	1	1.08
2	UTA	12	0	0.77
2	COL	16	2	1.28
3	UTA	25	1	1.51
3	COL	14	3	2.25

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1