Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2024-12-27 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 55.2%
VGK: 44.8%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.97
VGK: 3.20
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | SJS | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.874 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.787 | 0.870 |
| GAA | 3.36 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • SJS at home vs VGK: 0-6
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | SJS 2 - 7 VGK | VGK | SJS |
| 2025-12-23 | VGK 7 - 2 SJS | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-11-29 | VGK 4 - 3 SJS | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-10-09 | SJS 3 - 4 VGK | VGK | SJS |
| 2025-01-07 | SJS 2 - 4 VGK | VGK | SJS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:40 | SJS | Goal |
| 1 | 06:58 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 15:57 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 05:53 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 03:27 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:28 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 05:46 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 01:26 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 01:03 | SJS | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.0 - 3.2