Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2024-12-28 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 0 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

FLA: 55.9%

MTL: 44.1%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.34

MTL: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

FLA

Spencer Knight - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Spencer Knight	25	21	4	84.0%	1.99	0	-2.01
MTL	Jakub Dobes	34	34	0	100.0%	2.28	0	2.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • FLA at home vs MTL: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	MTL 4 - 3 FLA	MTL	MTL
2026-01-08	MTL 6 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-12-30	FLA 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	FLA
2025-04-01	MTL 3 - 2 FLA	MTL	FLA
2025-03-30	FLA 2 - 4 MTL	MTL	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	FLA	12	0.53
1	MTL	11	0.62
2	FLA	20	0.82
2	MTL	10	0.68
3	FLA	14	0.94
3	MTL	9	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Florida Panthers 0 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7