Philadelphia Flyers at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2024-12-28 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Win Probability

ANA: 38.2%

PHI: 61.8%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.53

PHI: 3.13

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 50%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	25	22	3	88.0%	4.86	4	1.86
PHI	Samuel Ersson	33	32	1	97.0%	2.64	1	1.64

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • ANA at home vs PHI: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-18	ANA 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-06	PHI 5 - 2 ANA	PHI	PHI
2025-01-11	PHI 6 - 0 ANA	PHI	PHI
2024-12-28	ANA 1 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2023-11-10	ANA 3 - 6 PHI	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	16	0	0.77
1	PHI	11	0	0.65
2	ANA	19	1	1.33
2	PHI	19	0	1.36
3	ANA	13	0	0.53
3	PHI	11	4	2.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 1 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

Expected: 2.5 - 3.1