Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-12-28 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 36.6%
WSH: 63.4%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.34
WSH: 3.31
Total Goals
Median: 4.4
Over 5.5: 33%
Over 6.5: 21%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 31-21-6 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | TOR | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.912 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.880 | 0.970 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 89% • TOR at home vs WSH: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | TOR 0 - 4 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-12-18 | WSH 4 - 0 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-28 | WSH 4 - 2 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-28 | TOR 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-06 | TOR 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:14 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 04:46 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 08:54 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 08:10 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:53 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 12:36 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 16:37 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 63.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
Expected: 2.3 - 3.3
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