Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-12-28 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 53.2%
WSH: 46.8%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.53
WSH: 2.91
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 44%
Over 6.5: 29%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | TOR | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.909 | 0.955 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs WSH: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | WSH 4 - 0 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-11-28 | WSH 4 - 2 TOR | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-12-28 | TOR 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | TOR |
| 2024-12-06 | TOR 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | WSH |
| 2024-11-13 | WSH 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:14 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 04:46 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 08:54 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 08:10 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 09:53 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 12:36 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 16:37 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 53.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.4
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Washington Capitals
Expected: 2.5 - 2.9