Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-28 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

TOR: 32.8%

WSH: 67.2%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.82

WSH: 3.94

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • TOR at home vs WSH: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-08	TOR 0 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-18	WSH 4 - 0 TOR	WSH	WSH
2025-11-28	WSH 4 - 2 TOR	WSH	WSH
2024-12-28	TOR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-12-06	TOR 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	1	1.14
1	WSH	22	0	0.76
2	TOR	22	1	1.55
2	WSH	16	0	0.95
3	TOR	16	0	0.89
3	WSH	12	1	1.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.8 - 3.9