New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-28 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 New York Rangers

Win Probability

TBL: 70.1%

NYR: 29.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.01

NYR: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	44	42	2	95.5%	3.38	0	1.38
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	25	19	6	76.0%	2.89	2	-3.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TBL at home vs NYR: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	TBL 2 - 4 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-11-29	NYR 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-12	TBL 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	TBL
2025-04-17	NYR 4 - 0 TBL	NYR	TBL
2025-04-07	NYR 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	1	1.02
1	NYR	23	0	1.41
2	TBL	15	1	1.14
2	NYR	12	0	0.63
3	TBL	10	0	0.73
3	NYR	25	0	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 2 New York Rangers

Expected: 4.0 - 2.7