Edmonton Oilers at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2024-12-29 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

ANA: 47.5%

EDM: 52.5%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.92

EDM: 3.76

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

EDM

Calvin Pickard - 4-5-2 | 0.874 SV% | 3.69 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	Lukas Dostal	23	20	3	87.0%	2.46	2	-0.54
EDM	Calvin Pickard	32	27	5	84.4%	4.91	3	-0.09

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • ANA at home vs EDM: 6-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-30	ANA 5 - 2 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-28	EDM 4 - 1 ANA	EDM	EDM
2026-04-26	ANA 4 - 3 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-24	ANA 7 - 4 EDM	ANA	ANA
2026-04-22	EDM 4 - 6 ANA	ANA	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	10	0	0.68
1	EDM	9	1	0.72
2	ANA	23	1	2.52
2	EDM	13	1	1.25
3	ANA	13	2	1.70
3	EDM	13	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.8