Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2024-12-29 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

Win Probability

TBL: 71.3%

MTL: 28.7%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.67

MTL: 2.67

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 28% • TBL at home vs MTL: 4-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-03	TBL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-05-01	MTL 0 - 1 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-29	TBL 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	TBL
2026-04-26	MTL 2 - 3 TBL	TBL	MTL
2026-04-24	MTL 3 - 2 TBL	MTL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.92
1	MTL	13	0	1.00
2	TBL	10	2	1.26
2	MTL	21	0	1.39
3	TBL	8	0	0.52
3	MTL	16	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 5 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7