New York Islanders at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2024-12-29 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 New York Islanders

Win Probability

PIT: 57.9%

NYI: 42.1%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.34

NYI: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

NYI

Marcus Hogberg - 0-0-0 | 0.714 SV% | 8.90 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	31	29	2	93.5%	2.70	2	0.70
NYI	Marcus Hogberg	41	38	3	92.7%	3.39	2	0.39

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PIT at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-30	NYI 3 - 8 PIT	PIT	NYI
2026-02-03	NYI 5 - 4 PIT	NYI	PIT
2025-10-09	PIT 4 - 3 NYI	PIT	PIT
2025-03-18	PIT 2 - 4 NYI	NYI	PIT
2024-12-29	PIT 3 - 2 NYI	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	10	0	0.61
1	NYI	10	0	0.57
2	PIT	24	0	1.05
2	NYI	20	1	1.12
3	PIT	21	2	1.73
3	NYI	15	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 2 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8