Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2024-12-29 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

STL: 45.8%

BUF: 54.2%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.98

BUF: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	16	12	4	75.0%	1.46	0	-2.54
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	37	35	2	94.6%	4.25	2	2.25

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • STL at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2025-11-06	BUF 0 - 3 STL	STL	BUF
2024-12-29	STL 2 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF
2024-11-14	BUF 4 - 3 STL	BUF	BUF
2024-02-10	BUF 1 - 3 STL	STL	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	21	2	2.39
1	BUF	7	0	0.42
2	STL	13	0	0.76
2	BUF	9	0	0.64
3	STL	16	0	1.11
3	BUF	6	0	0.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 2 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.0 - 3.3