Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2024-12-29 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 53.1%

OTT: 46.9%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.09

OTT: 2.78

Total Goals

Median: 5.5

Over 5.5: 49%

Over 6.5: 37%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	37	34	3	91.9%	3.63	3	0.63
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	31	30	1	96.8%	1.91	0	0.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MIN at home vs OTT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	OTT 1 - 4 MIN	MIN	OTT
2025-12-13	MIN 3 - 2 OTT	MIN	OTT
2025-02-01	OTT 6 - 0 MIN	OTT	OTT
2024-12-29	MIN 1 - 3 OTT	OTT	MIN
2024-04-02	MIN 3 - 2 OTT	MIN	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	14	0	0.44
1	OTT	16	0	0.61
2	MIN	13	0	0.63
2	OTT	20	1	1.22
3	MIN	16	0	0.84
3	OTT	16	2	1.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 3 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.1 - 2.8