Ottawa Senators at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions
2024-12-29 • Xcel Energy Center
Minnesota Wild 1 - 3 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MIN: 58.8%
OTT: 41.2%
Expected Goals
MIN: 3.00
OTT: 2.69
Total Goals
Median: 4.3
Over 5.5: 34%
Over 6.5: 23%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 28-15-6 | 0.903 SV% | 2.69 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 28-12-8 | 0.891 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | MIN | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.912 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.836 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.826 |
| GAA | 2.47 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MIN at home vs OTT: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | OTT 1 - 4 MIN | MIN | OTT |
| 2025-12-13 | MIN 3 - 2 OTT | MIN | OTT |
| 2025-02-01 | OTT 6 - 0 MIN | OTT | OTT |
| 2024-12-29 | MIN 1 - 3 OTT | OTT | MIN |
| 2024-04-02 | MIN 3 - 2 OTT | MIN | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:19 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 01:47 | MIN | Goal |
| 3 | 12:42 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:16 | OTT | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Minnesota Wild 1 - 3 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.0 - 2.7
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.