Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2024-12-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

VGK: 69.2%

CGY: 30.8%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.39

CGY: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	31	31	0	100.0%	2.47	1	2.47
CGY	Dan Vladar	37	34	3	91.9%	4.27	3	1.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • VGK at home vs CGY: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	VGK 6 - 3 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-12-20	CGY 6 - 3 VGK	CGY	VGK
2025-10-18	VGK 6 - 1 CGY	VGK	VGK
2025-10-14	CGY 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-04-15	CGY 5 - 4 VGK	CGY	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	20	0	1.31
1	CGY	16	1	0.84
2	VGK	16	1	1.14
2	CGY	16	0	0.82
3	VGK	15	2	1.82
3	CGY	15	0	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 69.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 0 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9