New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2024-12-31 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 New York Islanders

Win Probability

TOR: 61.6%

NYI: 38.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.58

NYI: 2.51

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 45%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	31	30	1	96.8%	2.72	1	1.72
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	25	22	3	88.0%	3.16	4	0.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • TOR at home vs NYI: 4-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	TOR 2 - 1 NYI	TOR	TOR
2026-04-09	NYI 5 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2026-03-17	TOR 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	NYI
2026-01-03	NYI 4 - 3 TOR	NYI	NYI
2025-01-02	NYI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	9	0	0.60
1	NYI	12	0	0.43
2	TOR	19	2	1.44
2	NYI	18	1	1.56
3	TOR	9	2	1.11
3	NYI	15	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.6 - 2.5