New York Islanders at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2024-12-31 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 New York Islanders
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 53.2%
NYI: 46.8%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.31
NYI: 3.50
Total Goals
Median: 8.0
Over 5.5: 80%
Over 6.5: 67%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
| Stat | TOR | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.851 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.881 | 0.907 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs NYI: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | NYI 5 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-03-17 | TOR 1 - 3 NYI | NYI | NYI |
| 2026-01-03 | NYI 4 - 3 TOR | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-02 | NYI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | NYI |
| 2024-12-31 | TOR 3 - 1 NYI | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:54 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 11:59 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 12:15 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:27 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 53.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.8
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 1 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.3 - 3.5
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