St. Louis Blues at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2024-12-31 • Wrigley Field

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 6 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

CHI: 45.4%

STL: 54.6%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.17

STL: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Petr Mrazek	28	22	6	78.6%	3.44	3	-2.56
STL	Jordan Binnington	30	28	2	93.3%	2.53	1	0.53

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CHI at home vs STL: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	CHI 4 - 2 STL	CHI	STL
2026-04-11	CHI 3 - 5 STL	STL	STL
2026-01-07	CHI 7 - 3 STL	CHI	STL
2025-12-12	STL 3 - 2 CHI	STL	STL
2025-10-15	STL 3 - 8 CHI	CHI	STL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	1	0.94
1	STL	13	1	1.30
2	CHI	19	0	1.17
2	STL	18	1	1.39
3	CHI	9	0	0.42
3	STL	13	1	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 2 - 6 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2