Buffalo Sabres at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2024-12-31 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

DAL: 63.2%

BUF: 36.8%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.69

BUF: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 46%

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Casey DeSmith	23	21	2	91.3%	3.07	2	1.07
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	33	29	4	87.9%	4.43	5	0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • DAL at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-08	BUF 0 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2026-04-15	BUF 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	BUF
2025-12-31	DAL 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	DAL
2024-12-31	DAL 4 - 2 BUF	DAL	DAL
2024-10-22	BUF 4 - 2 DAL	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	17	1	1.44
1	BUF	12	0	0.55
2	DAL	17	1	1.14
2	BUF	13	2	1.85
3	DAL	20	3	1.85
3	BUF	11	0	0.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.7 - 2.7