Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions
2025-01-02 • Capital One Arena
Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Minnesota Wild
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
WSH: 59.2%
MIN: 40.8%
Expected Goals
WSH: 3.01
MIN: 3.06
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
MIN
Filip Gustavsson - 20-9-6 | 0.906 SV% | 2.64 GAA
| Stat | WSH | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.912 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.895 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.929 | 0.929 |
| GAA | 2.39 | 2.47 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • WSH at home vs MIN: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-16 | MIN 5 - 0 WSH | MIN | MIN |
| 2025-10-17 | WSH 5 - 1 MIN | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-27 | MIN 4 - 2 WSH | MIN | MIN |
| 2025-01-02 | WSH 3 - 4 MIN | MIN | WSH |
| 2024-01-23 | MIN 5 - 3 WSH | MIN | MIN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:19 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 11:24 | WSH | Goal |
| 1 | 19:07 | MIN | Goal |
| 2 | 15:08 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 05:34 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 11:19 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | WSH | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Minnesota Wild
Expected: 3.0 - 3.1