Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 54.8%

MIN: 45.2%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.20

MIN: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 44%

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

MIN

Marc-Andre Fleury - 14-9-1 | 0.899 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	35	31	4	88.6%	4.25	5	0.25
MIN	Marc-Andre Fleury	34	31	3	91.2%	2.45	1	-0.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs MIN: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-16	MIN 5 - 0 WSH	MIN	WSH
2025-10-17	WSH 5 - 1 MIN	WSH	WSH
2025-03-27	MIN 4 - 2 WSH	MIN	MIN
2025-01-02	WSH 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	WSH
2024-01-23	MIN 5 - 3 WSH	MIN	MIN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	19	1	1.05
1	MIN	12	0	0.73
2	WSH	12	0	0.29
2	MIN	10	1	0.69
3	WSH	18	0	0.73
3	MIN	21	3	1.64
4	WSH	3	0	0.16
4	MIN	2	0	0.17
5	WSH	3	0	0.22
5	MIN	2	1	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 3 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9