Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CBJ: 54.0%

DET: 46.0%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.45

DET: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	26	21	5	80.8%	2.68	3	-2.32
DET	Cam Talbot	25	21	4	84.0%	1.52	0	-2.48

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CBJ at home vs DET: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DET 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-12-04	CBJ 6 - 5 DET	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-22	DET 4 - 3 CBJ	DET	CBJ
2025-03-01	CBJ 5 - 3 DET	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-27	DET 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	11	0	0.44
1	DET	14	2	1.62
2	CBJ	8	0	0.43
2	DET	8	0	0.22
3	CBJ	17	0	0.65
3	DET	8	1	0.84

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 4 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 3.0