Ottawa Senators at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

DAL: 54.3%

OTT: 45.7%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.56

OTT: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 40%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

OTT

Leevi Meriläinen - 5-7-0 | 0.872 SV% | 3.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	13	11	2	84.6%	1.59	1	-0.41
OTT	Leevi Meriläinen	25	21	4	84.0%	4.34	9	0.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DAL at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-30	DAL 6 - 1 OTT	DAL	OTT
2025-11-11	OTT 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	OTT
2025-01-12	OTT 3 - 2 DAL	OTT	OTT
2025-01-02	DAL 4 - 2 OTT	DAL	DAL
2024-02-22	OTT 4 - 1 DAL	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	2	1.34
1	OTT	11	0	0.41
2	DAL	13	2	0.71
2	OTT	13	0	0.60
3	DAL	16	5	2.29
3	OTT	5	1	0.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 4 - 2 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.6 - 3.3