Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

COL: 61.7%

BUF: 38.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.54

BUF: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

Scott Wedgewood - 17-1-4 | 0.919 SV% | 2.13 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Scott Wedgewood	21	16	5	76.2%	2.66	4	-2.34
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	29	23	6	79.3%	3.20	1	-2.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs BUF: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-13	COL 6 - 3 BUF	COL	COL
2025-10-13	BUF 1 - 3 COL	COL	BUF
2025-01-02	COL 6 - 5 BUF	COL	COL
2024-12-03	BUF 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2023-12-13	COL 5 - 1 BUF	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	0.58
1	BUF	13	3	1.19
2	COL	15	0	0.83
2	BUF	8	0	0.63
3	COL	17	1	1.47
3	BUF	7	1	0.84
4	COL	2	0	0.32
4	BUF	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 6 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9