Utah Hockey Club at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2025-01-02 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 3 - 5 Utah Hockey Club
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 58.2%
UTA: 41.8%
Expected Goals
CGY: 2.94
UTA: 3.09
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 27-15-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.61 GAA
| Stat | CGY | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.897 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 1.000 | 0.950 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.68 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • CGY at home vs UTA: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | CGY 2 - 0 UTA | CGY | CGY |
| 2025-10-15 | UTA 3 - 1 CGY | UTA | UTA |
| 2025-04-01 | UTA 3 - 1 CGY | UTA | UTA |
| 2025-01-02 | CGY 3 - 5 UTA | UTA | CGY |
| 2024-10-30 | UTA 5 - 1 CGY | UTA | UTA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:51 | UTA | Goal |
| 1 | 19:12 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 06:19 | UTA | Goal |
| 2 | 07:26 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 15:14 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 00:37 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 02:35 | UTA | Goal |
| 3 | 19:00 | UTA | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 8.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 3 - 5 Utah Hockey Club
Expected: 2.9 - 3.1