Tampa Bay Lightning at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-01-02 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (68% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 31.8%

TBL: 68.2%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.38

TBL: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	25	24	1	96.0%	2.54	1	1.54
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	25	23	2	92.0%	2.22	1	0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • SJS at home vs TBL: 1-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-20	TBL 4 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2026-01-03	SJS 3 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-01-02	SJS 2 - 1 TBL	SJS	TBL
2024-12-05	TBL 8 - 1 SJS	TBL	TBL
2024-03-21	SJS 1 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	14	0	0.66
1	TBL	11	1	0.88
2	SJS	15	1	1.11
2	TBL	11	0	0.76
3	SJS	6	0	0.45
3	TBL	14	0	0.90

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 68.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.4 - 3.4