Montreal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2025-01-03 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

Win Probability

CHI: 43.1%

MTL: 56.9%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.26

MTL: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 49%

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

MTL

Samuel Montembeault - 6-6-1 | 0.863 SV% | 3.52 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	40	38	2	95.0%	4.05	2	2.05
MTL	Samuel Montembeault	26	22	4	84.6%	3.79	2	-0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-18	MTL 4 - 1 CHI	MTL	MTL
2025-10-11	CHI 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	CHI
2025-04-14	MTL 3 - 4 CHI	CHI	MTL
2025-01-03	CHI 4 - 2 MTL	CHI	MTL
2023-12-22	CHI 2 - 5 MTL	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	17	1	1.62
1	MTL	14	1	1.37
2	CHI	13	0	0.79
2	MTL	27	0	1.58
3	CHI	14	1	1.38
3	MTL	17	1	1.10

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 4 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1