Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions
2025-01-03 • Enterprise Center
St. Louis Blues 4 - 0 Ottawa Senators
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
STL: 60.1%
OTT: 39.9%
Expected Goals
STL: 3.02
OTT: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 56%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
STL
Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA
OTT
Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | STL | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.869 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | — | — |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 3.56 | 2.72 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.
Goalie Game Metrics
| Team | Goalie | SA | Saves | GA | SV% | xGA | HD Faced | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | Jordan Binnington | 20 | 20 | 0 | 100.0% | 1.54 | 0 | 1.54 |
| OTT | Anton Forsberg | 25 | 21 | 4 | 84.0% | 3.06 | 0 | -0.94 |
SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • STL at home vs OTT: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | OTT 2 - 7 STL | STL | STL |
| 2025-12-06 | OTT 1 - 2 STL | STL | OTT |
| 2025-11-28 | STL 4 - 3 OTT | STL | STL |
| 2025-01-03 | STL 4 - 0 OTT | STL | STL |
| 2024-10-29 | OTT 8 - 1 STL | OTT | OTT |
Shot Quality by Period
| Period | Team | Shots | High Danger | xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STL | 12 | 0 | 0.95 |
| 1 | OTT | 11 | 0 | 0.45 |
| 2 | STL | 12 | 0 | 0.79 |
| 2 | OTT | 12 | 0 | 0.51 |
| 3 | STL | 19 | 0 | 1.32 |
| 3 | OTT | 10 | 0 | 0.57 |
Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 60.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
St. Louis Blues 4 - 0 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.0 - 2.8
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