Ottawa Senators at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-01-03 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 4 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Win Probability

STL: 57.6%

OTT: 42.4%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.16

OTT: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	20	20	0	100.0%	1.54	0	1.54
OTT	Anton Forsberg	25	21	4	84.0%	3.06	0	-0.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • STL at home vs OTT: 3-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	OTT
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT
2024-03-21	OTT 2 - 5 STL	STL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	STL	12	0.95
1	OTT	11	0.45
2	STL	12	0.79
2	OTT	12	0.51
3	STL	19	1.32
3	OTT	10	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

St. Louis Blues 4 - 0 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6