New York Rangers at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 7 - 4 New York Rangers

Win Probability

WSH: 65.6%

NYR: 34.4%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.39

NYR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	Logan Thompson	33	29	4	87.9%	3.33	3	-0.67
NYR	Jonathan Quick	28	21	7	75.0%	4.84	5	-2.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • WSH at home vs NYR: 5-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	NYR 8 - 1 WSH	NYR	NYR
2025-12-31	WSH 6 - 3 NYR	WSH	WSH
2025-12-23	WSH 3 - 7 NYR	NYR	WSH
2025-10-12	NYR 0 - 1 WSH	WSH	NYR
2025-03-05	NYR 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	15	1	1.41
1	NYR	21	1	1.43
2	WSH	11	2	0.98
2	NYR	11	1	0.74
3	WSH	20	2	2.46
3	NYR	18	1	1.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 65.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 7 - 4 New York Rangers

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8