Detroit Red Wings at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

Win Probability

WPG: 52.4%

DET: 47.6%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.18

DET: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 48%

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DET

Alex Lyon - 14-9-1 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	29	25	4	86.2%	3.19	1	-0.81
DET	Alex Lyon	23	21	2	91.3%	2.35	0	0.35

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • WPG at home vs DET: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-04	DET 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	DET
2026-01-24	WPG 1 - 5 DET	DET	WPG
2025-12-31	DET 2 - 1 WPG	DET	DET
2025-01-04	WPG 2 - 4 DET	DET	WPG
2024-10-30	DET 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	12	0	0.84
1	DET	21	0	1.37
2	WPG	17	0	0.80
2	DET	7	0	0.35
3	WPG	17	0	0.71
3	DET	10	1	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 2 - 4 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2