New Jersey Devils at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

Win Probability

SJS: 40.7%

NJD: 59.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.64

NJD: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	30	28	2	93.3%	3.28	5	1.28
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	24	21	3	87.5%	2.54	2	-0.46

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • SJS at home vs NJD: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-10-30	SJS 5 - 2 NJD	SJS	NJD
2025-10-24	NJD 3 - 1 SJS	NJD	NJD
2025-01-04	SJS 3 - 2 NJD	SJS	NJD
2024-11-10	NJD 0 - 1 SJS	SJS	NJD
2024-02-27	SJS 2 - 7 NJD	NJD	NJD

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	2	1.29
1	NJD	16	2	1.41
2	SJS	13	0	0.82
2	NJD	16	3	1.48
3	SJS	12	0	0.43
3	NJD	10	0	0.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 3 - 2 New Jersey Devils

Expected: 2.6 - 3.4