Boston Bruins at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TOR: 53.6%

BOS: 46.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.17

BOS: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	31	27	4	87.1%	2.79	2	-1.21
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	29	23	6	79.3%	4.09	2	-1.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • TOR at home vs BOS: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	BOS 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-11-11	BOS 5 - 3 TOR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-08	TOR 3 - 5 BOS	BOS	TOR
2025-02-25	BOS 4 - 5 TOR	TOR	BOS
2025-01-04	TOR 6 - 4 BOS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	16	0	0.88
1	BOS	10	0	0.44
2	TOR	14	0	0.56
2	BOS	19	1	1.51
3	TOR	12	2	2.65
3	BOS	14	1	0.83

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 6 - 4 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9