Minnesota Wild at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 4 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 66.5%

MIN: 33.5%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.30

MIN: 2.10

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 42%

CAR

Pyotr Kochetkov - 6-2-0 | 0.899 SV% | 2.33 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Pyotr Kochetkov	27	23	4	85.2%	3.05	3	-0.95
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	21	21	0	100.0%	2.37	0	2.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CAR at home vs MIN: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-19	MIN 4 - 3 CAR	MIN	CAR
2025-11-06	CAR 4 - 3 MIN	CAR	CAR
2025-02-06	MIN 2 - 1 CAR	MIN	MIN
2025-01-04	CAR 0 - 4 MIN	MIN	CAR
2024-02-27	MIN 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	11	0	0.67
1	MIN	14	1	1.08
2	CAR	12	0	0.64
2	MIN	13	1	1.17
3	CAR	23	0	1.06
3	MIN	8	1	0.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 0 - 4 Minnesota Wild

Expected: 3.3 - 2.1