St. Louis Blues at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Win Probability

CBJ: 56.8%

STL: 43.2%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.20

STL: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	33	29	4	87.9%	4.72	4	0.72
STL	Joel Hofer	39	33	6	84.6%	4.24	4	-1.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • CBJ at home vs STL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-10	STL 5 - 3 CBJ	STL	STL
2026-01-31	STL 3 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	STL
2025-11-01	CBJ 3 - 2 STL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-01-11	STL 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	STL
2025-01-04	CBJ 6 - 4 STL	CBJ	CBJ

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	23	0	1.40
1	STL	13	2	2.30
2	CBJ	10	1	0.83
2	STL	11	0	0.83
3	CBJ	16	3	2.01
3	STL	20	2	1.58

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 6 - 4 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.2 - 3.2