Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (75% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 75.4%

MTL: 24.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.89

MTL: 2.64

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	22	3	88.0%	4.05	2	1.05
MTL	Jakub Dobes	25	24	1	96.0%	2.80	1	1.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • COL at home vs MTL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	COL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	16	0	0.72
1	MTL	8	0	0.47
2	COL	11	0	0.68
2	MTL	10	0	0.55
3	COL	13	1	1.00
3	MTL	14	0	0.86
4	COL	4	0	0.27
4	MTL	4	0	0.44
5	COL	2	0	0.12
5	MTL	2	2	1.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 75.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.9 - 2.6