Montreal Canadiens at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2025-01-04 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 62.5%
MTL: 37.5%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.46
MTL: 2.68
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | COL | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.750 | 0.846 |
| GAA | 2.13 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • COL at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | MTL 7 - 3 COL | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-11-29 | COL 7 - 2 MTL | COL | COL |
| 2025-03-22 | MTL 4 - 5 COL | COL | MTL |
| 2025-01-04 | COL 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | COL |
| 2024-03-26 | COL 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:01 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 13:25 | COL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | COL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | COL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 3.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 1 - 2 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.5 - 2.7