Nashville Predators at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 66.5%

NSH: 33.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.36

NSH: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

NSH

Justus Annunen - 3-5-1 | 0.875 SV% | 3.29 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	24	4	85.7%	4.41	6	0.41
NSH	Justus Annunen	32	31	1	96.9%	3.11	1	2.11

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CGY at home vs NSH: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-03	CGY 3 - 4 NSH	NSH	CGY
2025-12-02	NSH 5 - 1 CGY	NSH	NSH
2025-11-01	NSH 4 - 2 CGY	NSH	NSH
2025-01-04	CGY 1 - 4 NSH	NSH	CGY
2024-12-10	NSH 3 - 4 CGY	CGY	NSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	1.03
1	NSH	5	0	0.31
2	CGY	19	1	1.41
2	NSH	16	3	1.46
3	CGY	17	0	0.68
3	NSH	15	3	2.63

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 4 Nashville Predators

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9