Utah Hockey Club at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Utah Hockey Club

Win Probability

DAL: 59.7%

UTA: 40.3%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.34

UTA: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 48%

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	35	33	2	94.3%	4.18	1	2.18
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	29	26	3	89.7%	3.17	1	0.17

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • DAL at home vs UTA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DAL 3 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	UTA
2026-01-15	UTA 2 - 1 DAL	UTA	DAL
2025-11-28	DAL 4 - 3 UTA	DAL	UTA
2025-04-12	DAL 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	16	1	1.49
1	UTA	18	0	1.28
2	DAL	10	0	0.85
2	UTA	20	0	1.35
3	DAL	7	0	0.26
3	UTA	18	1	1.21
4	DAL	5	0	0.57
4	UTA	3	0	0.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 Utah Hockey Club

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9