Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Win Probability

LAK: 59.0%

TBL: 41.0%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.36

TBL: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

LAK

Darcy Kuemper - 10-7-6 | 0.913 SV% | 2.27 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	Darcy Kuemper	34	33	1	97.1%	2.47	0	1.47
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	21	19	2	90.5%	1.78	2	-0.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • LAK at home vs TBL: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-01	LAK 3 - 5 TBL	TBL	LAK
2025-12-18	TBL 1 - 2 LAK	LAK	TBL
2025-01-30	TBL 3 - 0 LAK	TBL	TBL
2025-01-04	LAK 2 - 1 TBL	LAK	LAK
2024-03-23	LAK 4 - 3 TBL	LAK	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	6	0	0.13
1	TBL	16	0	0.79
2	LAK	14	0	0.57
2	TBL	15	0	0.94
3	LAK	19	2	1.08
3	TBL	16	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 2 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8