Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-01-04 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 62.5%
BUF: 37.5%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.44
BUF: 2.62
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 52%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | VGK | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 75% • VGK at home vs BUF: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | BUF 4 - 3 VGK | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-01-04 | VGK 3 - 1 BUF | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-03-02 | BUF 7 - 2 VGK | BUF | BUF |
| 2023-12-15 | VGK 2 - 5 BUF | BUF | VGK |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:23 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 04:53 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 17:42 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 07:44 | VGK | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 62.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.4 - 2.6