Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-04 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

VGK: 60.7%

BUF: 39.3%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.83

BUF: 2.88

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 47%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

BUF

James Reimer - 10-10-2 | 0.896 SV% | 3.04 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	24	23	1	95.8%	2.42	0	1.42
BUF	James Reimer	33	30	3	90.9%	3.04	3	0.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • VGK at home vs BUF: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-17	VGK 0 - 2 BUF	BUF	VGK
2026-03-03	BUF 3 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-03-15	BUF 4 - 3 VGK	BUF	VGK
2025-01-04	VGK 3 - 1 BUF	VGK	VGK
2024-03-02	BUF 7 - 2 VGK	BUF	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	2	1.72
1	BUF	9	0	0.43
2	VGK	15	0	0.64
2	BUF	11	0	0.53
3	VGK	9	1	0.68
3	BUF	24	0	1.47

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 60.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.8 - 2.9