New York Islanders at Boston Bruins NHL Predictions
2025-01-05 • TD Garden
Boston Bruins 4 - 5 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
BOS: 57.7%
NYI: 42.3%
Expected Goals
BOS: 3.07
NYI: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 60%
Over 6.5: 46%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | BOS | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.903 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.889 | 0.930 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.948 | 0.839 |
| GAA | 2.84 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • BOS at home vs NYI: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | NYI 1 - 3 BOS | BOS | NYI |
| 2025-11-04 | NYI 3 - 4 BOS | BOS | NYI |
| 2025-10-28 | BOS 5 - 2 NYI | BOS | BOS |
| 2025-02-27 | BOS 1 - 2 NYI | NYI | BOS |
| 2025-01-05 | BOS 4 - 5 NYI | NYI | BOS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:01 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 03:22 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 05:33 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 04:11 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 10:18 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 03:41 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 04:35 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 12:44 | BOS | Goal |
| 4 | 03:10 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Boston Bruins 4 - 5 New York Islanders
Expected: 3.1 - 3.0