Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-01-05 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Win (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 37.1%
PHI: 62.9%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.54
PHI: 3.39
Total Goals
Median: 5.1
Over 5.5: 40%
Over 6.5: 26%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
| Stat | TOR | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.914 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.890 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs PHI: 3-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | TOR 2 - 3 PHI | PHI | PHI |
| 2026-01-08 | PHI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-11-01 | PHI 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-25 | TOR 7 - 2 PHI | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-07 | PHI 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:24 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 04:02 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 18:52 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 11:08 | TOR | Goal |
| 4 | 02:25 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 2.5 - 3.4
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