Philadelphia Flyers at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2025-01-05 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 58.0%
PHI: 42.0%
Expected Goals
TOR: 3.35
PHI: 3.26
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 62%
Over 6.5: 48%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | TOR | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.857 |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs PHI: 3-0
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | PHI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-11-01 | PHI 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-03-25 | TOR 7 - 2 PHI | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-07 | PHI 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-01-05 | TOR 3 - 2 PHI | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03:24 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 04:02 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 18:52 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 11:08 | TOR | Goal |
| 4 | 02:25 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 2 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.4 - 3.3