Tampa Bay Lightning at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions
2025-01-05 • Honda Center
Anaheim Ducks 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
ANA: 58.7%
TBL: 41.3%
Expected Goals
ANA: 3.26
TBL: 2.99
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
ANA
Lukas Dostal - 22-13-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.98 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | ANA | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.904 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.871 | 0.893 |
| GAA | 3.15 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • ANA at home vs TBL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | ANA 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | ANA |
| 2025-10-25 | TBL 4 - 3 ANA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-16 | TBL 4 - 3 ANA | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-01-05 | ANA 4 - 1 TBL | ANA | ANA |
| 2024-03-24 | ANA 2 - 3 TBL | TBL | ANA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05:24 | ANA | Goal |
| 1 | 17:03 | ANA | Goal |
| 2 | 09:12 | ANA | Goal |
| 3 | 16:26 | ANA | Goal |
| 3 | 18:28 | ANA | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 58.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
Anaheim Ducks 4 - 1 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.3 - 3.0