Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2025-01-06 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

COL: 46.7%

FLA: 53.3%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.19

FLA: 3.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

FLA

Sergei Bobrovsky - 17-9-1 | 0.888 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	27	26	1	96.3%	3.32	4	2.32
FLA	Sergei Bobrovsky	34	31	3	91.2%	3.75	2	0.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs FLA: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-04	FLA 2 - 1 COL	FLA	FLA
2025-12-11	COL 6 - 2 FLA	COL	COL
2025-01-06	COL 3 - 1 FLA	COL	FLA
2024-11-23	FLA 4 - 7 COL	COL	COL
2024-02-10	FLA 4 - 0 COL	FLA	FLA

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	15	0	0.97
1	FLA	9	1	0.86
2	COL	12	0	0.82
2	FLA	13	3	1.46
3	COL	20	2	1.95
3	FLA	18	0	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 1 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.2 - 3.4