Dallas Stars at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

Win Probability

NYR: 29.9%

DAL: 70.1%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.10

DAL: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	39	34	5	87.2%	2.93	0	-2.07
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	22	4	84.6%	3.08	1	-0.92

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	DAL 2 - 0 NYR	DAL	DAL
2025-12-02	NYR 3 - 2 DAL	NYR	DAL
2025-01-07	NYR 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	DAL
2024-12-20	DAL 1 - 3 NYR	NYR	DAL
2024-02-20	NYR 3 - 1 DAL	NYR	NYR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	12	0	0.93
1	DAL	25	0	1.43
2	NYR	14	0	0.93
2	DAL	14	0	0.84
3	NYR	18	1	1.22
3	DAL	11	0	0.52
4	NYR	0	0	0.00
4	DAL	1	0	0.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 70.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 2.1 - 3.6