Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-01-07 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 55.2%
TOR: 44.8%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.08
TOR: 2.46
Total Goals
Median: 4.6
Over 5.5: 38%
Over 6.5: 26%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 29-14-7 | 0.906 SV% | 2.42 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | PHI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.914 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.890 | — |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | TOR 2 - 3 PHI | PHI | PHI |
| 2026-01-08 | PHI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-11-01 | PHI 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-25 | TOR 7 - 2 PHI | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-07 | PHI 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:19 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 01:19 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:14 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:55 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 13:21 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.1 - 2.5
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