Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-01-07 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 61.4%
TOR: 38.6%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.30
TOR: 2.65
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | PHI | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.857 | — |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | PHI 1 - 2 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-11-01 | PHI 2 - 5 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-03-25 | TOR 7 - 2 PHI | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-07 | PHI 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | PHI |
| 2025-01-05 | TOR 3 - 2 PHI | TOR | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:19 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 01:19 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:14 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:55 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 13:21 | TOR | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 2.7