Toronto Maple Leafs at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 55.1%

TOR: 44.9%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.27

TOR: 2.84

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 40%

PHI

Ivan Fedotov - 6-13-4 | 0.880 SV% | 3.15 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Ivan Fedotov	17	14	3	82.4%	2.13	1	-0.87
TOR	Joseph Woll	32	30	2	93.8%	3.54	2	1.54

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs TOR: 1-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-02	TOR 2 - 3 PHI	PHI	PHI
2026-01-08	PHI 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	PHI
2025-11-01	PHI 2 - 5 TOR	TOR	TOR
2025-03-25	TOR 7 - 2 PHI	TOR	TOR
2025-01-07	PHI 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	21	1	1.16
1	TOR	12	0	1.07
2	PHI	13	0	0.88
2	TOR	7	1	0.58
3	PHI	18	1	1.51
3	TOR	13	0	0.48

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 2.8