Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • Honda Center

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

ANA: 41.4%

CGY: 58.6%

Expected Goals

ANA: 2.79

CGY: 3.24

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

ANA

John Gibson - 13-27-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.54 GAA

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
ANA	John Gibson	33	30	3	90.9%	4.91	5	1.91
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	26	2	92.9%	2.19	1	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • ANA at home vs CGY: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	ANA
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA
2026-01-25	CGY 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	ANA
2025-04-09	ANA 4 - 3 CGY	ANA	CGY

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	ANA	13	0	0.79
1	CGY	18	0	0.89
2	ANA	11	0	0.45
2	CGY	19	2	1.47
3	ANA	13	0	0.68
3	CGY	15	1	1.20
4	ANA	1	1	0.27
4	CGY	5	2	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Anaheim Ducks 2 - 3 Calgary Flames

Expected: 2.8 - 3.2