Vegas Golden Knights at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-01-07 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

SJS: 36.7%

VGK: 63.3%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.39

VGK: 3.59

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 52%

Over 6.5: 38%

SJS

Alexandar Georgiev - 15-26-4 | 0.875 SV% | 3.71 GAA

VGK

Ilya Samsonov - 16-9-4 | 0.891 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alexandar Georgiev	42	38	4	90.5%	5.21	3	1.21
VGK	Ilya Samsonov	21	19	2	90.5%	1.59	0	-0.41

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 72% • SJS at home vs VGK: 1-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-11	SJS 2 - 7 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-12-23	VGK 7 - 2 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-11-29	VGK 4 - 3 SJS	VGK	VGK
2025-10-09	SJS 3 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-07	SJS 2 - 4 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	0	0.82
1	VGK	19	0	1.17
2	SJS	4	0	0.29
2	VGK	27	0	1.28
3	SJS	9	0	0.48
3	VGK	17	3	2.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 2 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.4 - 3.6