Calgary Flames at Los Angeles Kings NHL Predictions

2025-04-17 • Crypto.com Arena

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

Win Probability

LAK: 59.1%

CGY: 40.9%

Expected Goals

LAK: 3.38

CGY: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 41%

LAK

David Rittich - 16-14-2 | 0.886 SV% | 2.84 GAA

CGY

Dan Vladar - 12-11-6 | 0.898 SV% | 2.80 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
LAK	David Rittich	29	24	5	82.8%	3.25	2	-1.75
CGY	Dan Vladar	31	30	1	96.8%	3.14	1	2.14

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • LAK at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	CGY 3 - 1 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-03-24	CGY 3 - 2 LAK	CGY	LAK
2026-02-28	LAK 2 - 0 CGY	LAK	LAK
2025-12-13	LAK 1 - 2 CGY	CGY	LAK
2025-04-17	LAK 1 - 5 CGY	CGY	LAK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	LAK	11	0	0.36
1	CGY	15	1	1.24
2	LAK	13	0	0.98
2	CGY	9	1	0.93
3	LAK	24	1	1.81
3	CGY	14	0	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Los Angeles Kings 1 - 5 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.4 - 2.8