Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 57.7%

BUF: 42.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.28

BUF: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 41%

OTT

Anton Forsberg - 11-12-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.72 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Anton Forsberg	21	17	4	81.0%	2.13	0	-1.87
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	35	35	0	100.0%	2.70	1	2.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • OTT at home vs BUF: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	OTT 4 - 1 BUF	OTT	OTT
2025-12-23	OTT 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-10-15	BUF 8 - 4 OTT	BUF	OTT
2025-04-01	OTT 2 - 5 BUF	BUF	OTT
2025-03-25	BUF 3 - 2 OTT	BUF	BUF

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	18	0	1.11
1	BUF	9	0	0.83
2	OTT	15	0	0.72
2	BUF	12	0	0.57
3	OTT	21	1	0.87
3	BUF	6	0	0.73

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9