Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-01-09 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 60.4%
BUF: 39.6%
Expected Goals
OTT: 2.94
BUF: 2.74
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | OTT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.880 | 0.905 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs BUF: 1-4
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-23 | OTT 2 - 3 BUF | BUF | OTT |
| 2025-10-15 | BUF 8 - 4 OTT | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-04-01 | OTT 2 - 5 BUF | BUF | OTT |
| 2025-03-25 | BUF 3 - 2 OTT | BUF | BUF |
| 2025-01-09 | OTT 0 - 4 BUF | BUF | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10:17 | BUF | Goal |
| 1 | 13:17 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 04:11 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 10:22 | BUF | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 0 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 2.9 - 2.7