Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • Amalie Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

Win Probability

TBL: 57.0%

BOS: 43.0%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.18

BOS: 2.89

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

BOS

Jeremy Swayman - 15-10-2 | 0.903 SV% | 2.84 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	27	1	96.4%	2.27	0	1.27
BOS	Jeremy Swayman	31	27	4	87.1%	4.79	3	0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 65% • TBL at home vs BOS: 6-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	BOS 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-04-04	TBL 3 - 1 BOS	TBL	TBL
2026-02-01	TBL 6 - 5 BOS	TBL	TBL
2025-10-13	BOS 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	BOS
2025-03-15	BOS 2 - 6 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	18	1	1.28
1	BOS	14	0	0.62
2	TBL	18	0	1.25
2	BOS	13	0	0.76
3	TBL	12	2	2.26
3	BOS	20	0	0.89

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9