Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-01-09 • Wells Fargo Center
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 55.4%
DAL: 44.6%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.12
DAL: 3.41
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
DAL
Jake Oettinger - 23-10-4 | 0.897 SV% | 2.73 GAA
| Stat | PHI | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.860 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.821 | 0.952 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.57 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • PHI at home vs DAL: 1-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-15 | DAL 5 - 1 PHI | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-03-22 | DAL 3 - 2 PHI | DAL | DAL |
| 2025-01-09 | PHI 1 - 4 DAL | DAL | PHI |
| 2024-01-18 | PHI 5 - 1 DAL | PHI | PHI |
| 2023-10-21 | DAL 5 - 4 PHI | DAL | DAL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 01:45 | DAL | Goal |
| 1 | 09:38 | DAL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:41 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 06:47 | DAL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:47 | DAL | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Dallas Stars
Expected: 3.1 - 3.4