Dallas Stars at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • Wells Fargo Center

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

PHI: 50.5%

DAL: 49.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.24

DAL: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	23	19	4	82.6%	3.17	2	-0.83
DAL	Casey DeSmith	28	27	1	96.4%	2.34	1	1.34

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PHI at home vs DAL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-29	PHI 2 - 1 DAL	PHI	DAL
2025-11-15	DAL 5 - 1 PHI	DAL	PHI
2025-03-22	DAL 3 - 2 PHI	DAL	DAL
2025-01-09	PHI 1 - 4 DAL	DAL	PHI
2024-01-18	PHI 5 - 1 DAL	PHI	PHI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	18	1	1.01
1	DAL	14	1	1.00
2	PHI	10	0	0.51
2	DAL	14	0	0.90
3	PHI	14	0	0.82
3	DAL	8	1	1.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 4 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 3.3