Edmonton Oilers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

Win Probability

PIT: 45.1%

EDM: 54.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 2.95

EDM: 3.32

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

PIT

Alex Nedeljkovic - 14-15-5 | 0.894 SV% | 3.12 GAA

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Alex Nedeljkovic	43	40	3	93.0%	3.09	0	0.09
EDM	Stuart Skinner	26	21	5	80.8%	4.43	5	-0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs EDM: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	EDM 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	EDM
2025-12-16	PIT 4 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-09	PIT 5 - 3 EDM	PIT	EDM
2024-10-25	EDM 4 - 0 PIT	EDM	EDM
2024-03-10	PIT 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	19	2	1.65
1	EDM	11	0	0.71
2	PIT	10	0	0.33
2	EDM	30	0	1.43
3	PIT	12	3	2.45
3	EDM	19	0	0.94

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 5 - 3 Edmonton Oilers

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3