Colorado Avalanche at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • Xcel Energy Center

Minnesota Wild 1 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

Win Probability

MIN: 52.8%

COL: 47.2%

Expected Goals

MIN: 2.71

COL: 3.40

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	27	21	6	77.8%	2.72	1	-3.28
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	24	1	96.0%	2.90	1	1.90

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • MIN at home vs COL: 5-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-13	COL 4 - 3 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-11	MIN 2 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2026-05-09	MIN 5 - 1 COL	MIN	COL
2026-05-05	COL 5 - 2 MIN	COL	COL
2026-05-03	COL 9 - 6 MIN	COL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	8	0	0.82
1	COL	13	0	0.73
2	MIN	16	0	0.80
2	COL	18	1	1.20
3	MIN	22	1	1.28
3	COL	11	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 1 - 6 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4