New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-01-09 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 New York Islanders
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 58.6%
NYI: 41.4%
Expected Goals
VGK: 2.21
NYI: 3.24
Total Goals
Median: 5.0
Over 5.5: 45%
Over 6.5: 31%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
| Stat | VGK | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.930 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.833 | 0.894 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.55 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs NYI: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | NYI 5 - 4 VGK | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-11-13 | VGK 3 - 4 NYI | NYI | VGK |
| 2025-02-04 | NYI 2 - 1 VGK | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-09 | VGK 0 - 4 NYI | NYI | VGK |
| 2024-01-23 | NYI 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17:04 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 10:41 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 05:30 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 17:26 | NYI | Goal |
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 5.4
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 New York Islanders
Expected: 2.2 - 3.2