New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-01-09 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 56.4%

NYI: 43.6%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.14

NYI: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	21	17	4	81.0%	2.60	1	-1.40
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	30	30	0	100.0%	1.89	0	1.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs NYI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	18	0	0.61
1	NYI	12	0	0.47
2	VGK	18	0	0.65
2	NYI	10	0	0.73
3	VGK	15	0	0.63
3	NYI	14	1	1.40

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 0 - 4 New York Islanders

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0