Chicago Blackhawks at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-01-10 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Win Probability

DET: 67.2%

CHI: 32.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.51

CHI: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

CHI

Petr Mrazek - 18-31-4 | 0.907 SV% | 3.05 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	15	12	3	80.0%	0.83	0	-2.17
CHI	Petr Mrazek	28	23	5	82.1%	4.27	4	-0.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • DET at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-13	CHI 0 - 4 DET	DET	DET
2025-11-09	DET 1 - 5 CHI	CHI	DET
2025-01-10	DET 5 - 3 CHI	DET	DET
2024-11-06	CHI 1 - 4 DET	DET	DET
2024-02-25	CHI 2 - 3 DET	DET	DET

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	7	0	0.28
1	CHI	9	0	0.31
2	DET	24	2	2.21
2	CHI	2	0	0.08
3	DET	10	2	1.78
3	CHI	9	0	0.44

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 5 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.5 - 2.7